2025 2(49) 26

Analysis of the investment potential of the energy sector of Ukraine in the conditions of post-war reconstruction

Shevchuk O. A.,
Doctor of Economics, Professor,
ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4117-1474

e-mail: shevchuk-oa@ukr.net;
Kolesnikov M. O.,
Master’s student,
ORCID https://orcid.org/0009-0003-6264-1225

e-mail: vityaz147@gmail.com
National Technical University of Ukraine “Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute”, Kyiv

Citation Format
Shevchuk, O. A., & Kolesnikov, M. O. (2025). Analysis of the investment potential of the energy sector of  Ukraine in the conditions of post-war reconstruction. Vіsnyk ekonomіchnoі nauky Ukraіny, 2(49), 226-234. https://doi.org/10.37405/1729-7206.2025.2(49).226-234

Language
Ukrainian

Resume
The research emphasizes that Ukraine’s energy sector has become a decisive factor for national resilience and long-term economic stability in the post-war recovery period. The destruction of critical infrastructure has turned the restoration of energy capacities into both an economic and security priority, requiring the attraction of large-scale domestic and foreign investments. The study highlights that the transition from a centralized, fossil-fuel-based model to a decentralized, innovative, and low-carbon system is not only a technological challenge but also a strategic opportunity to rebuild the country on new sustainable principles. Special attention is paid to the integration of European energy standards, improvement of regulatory mechanisms, and expansion of public-private partnerships as tools to mobilize capital and accelerate modernization. The study is devoted to a comprehensive analysis of the investment potential of the energy sector of Ukraine in the conditions of post-war recovery caused by unprecedented military aggression. As a result of targeted attacks, more than 40 GW of generating capacity was lost, which requires a fundamental transformation of the system. Particular attention is paid to identifying key investment priorities: increasing energy efficiency, large-scale development of renewable energy sources (RES), modernization of networks and creation of energy storage systems. The work first carried out a systematic analysis of multi-faceted risks (political, economic, technical and social) that accompany the implementation of these ambitious projects. Based on the analysis, a model of transition to a decentralized, low-carbon energy system with a potential of up to 40% “green” generation by 2030 is substantiated. Practical recommendations have been formulated to strengthen investment security by expanding international guarantees (ECA, MIGA, DFC) and completing regulatory modernization to attract private capital.

Keywords
investment potential, energy sector, post-war recovery, decentralization, renewable energy sources, systemic risk analysis, energy security.

Referensces

  1. Treshchov, M. (2024). Modernization of the energy sector as a priority direction of Ukraine’s postwar recovery. Naukovyi visnyk: Derzhavne upravlinnia, 1(15), 28–45. https://doi.org/10.33269/2618-0065-2024-1(15)-28-45 [in Ukrainian].
  2. Voitovych, L., & Fedyk, M. (2024). Strategy of postwar economic recovery of Ukraine in the conditions of European integration. Ekonomika ta suspilstvo, 65. https://doi.org/10.32782/2524-0072/2024-65-112 [in Ukrainian].
  3. Tkach, D., & Vasylieva, O. (2025). Energy sector of Ukraine in the wartime and postwar period: Strategic approaches and innovative solutions. Yevropeiskyi naukovyi zhurnal Ekonomichnykh ta Finansovykh innovatsii, 1(15), 299–308. https://doi.org/10.32750/2025-0126 [in Ukrainian].
  4. Buriachenko, A., & Slavkova, A. (2023). Reforming the energy sector of Ukraine to ensure sustainable development. Modeling the development of the economic systems, 4, 130–137. https://doi.org/10.31891/mdes/2023-10-17 [in Ukrainian].
  5. Shevchuk, O. A., & Cherniaiev, M. O. (2024). Prospects for building and developing a decentralized energy system in Ukraine based on microgrids. Ekonomichnyi visnyk Donbasu, 3(77), 21–29. https://doi.org/10.12958/1817-3772-2024-3(77)-21-29 [in Ukrainian].
  6. Leheza, Yu. (2025). Improvement of regulatory mechanisms for implementing regional environmental and energy policy for the postwar recovery of Ukraine. Nove ukrainske pravo, 3. https://doi.org/10.51989/NUL.2025.3.17 [in Ukrainian].
  7. Zaverbnyi, A., Kis, M., & Bilous, Yu. (2023). Problems and prospects of attracting foreign investments in renewable energy projects in Ukraine during the wartime and postwar periods. Ekonomika ta suspilstvo, 51. https://doi.org/10.32782/2524-0072/2023-51-10 [in Ukrainian].
  8. Palasevych, M. B., & Murdza, P. A. (2024). Renewable energy as a factor in increasing the energy efficiency of the national economy. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13166251 [in Ukrainian].
  9. Petrovets, S. (2024). The role of investments in the bioenergy sector of Ukraine for a stable economy in the postwar period. Vcheni zapysky Universytetu «KROK», 2(74), 71–76. https://doi.org/10.31732/2663-2209-2024-74-71-76 [in Ukrainian].
  10. International Energy Agency. (2024). Ukraine’s Energy Security and the Coming Winter: Ukraine’s Energy System Under Attack. IEA. https://www.iea.org/reports/ukraines-energy-security-and-the-coming-winter/ukraines-energy-system-under-attack
  11. Russian strikes destroy Ukrainian energy system. What is the scale of the losses and what to do? (2024). Radio Svoboda. https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/ruynuvannya-ukrayinskoyi-enerhetyky-pid-chas-viyny/33237255.html [in Ukrainian].
  12. Baibak, A. V. (2024, June 25). Enough for 4 EU countries: as a result of attacks, Ukraine lost a record amount of electricity generation. 24 Kanal. https://24tv.ua/economy/energosistema-ukrayini-vtratila-ponad-40-gigavat-yak-tse-vplivaye_n2582857 [in Ukrainian].
  13. DiXi Group. (2024, November 19). Winter Outlook 2024–2025: Electricity. https://dixigroup.org/analytic/ winter-outlook-2024-2025-electricity
  14. Hobhouse, C. (2025, March 28). Keeping the lights on: How Ukraine can build a resilient energy system (and why this matters to the EU). European Union Institute for Security Studies. https://www.iss.europa.eu/ publications/commentary/keeping-lights-how-ukraine-can-build-resilient-energy-system-and-why
  15. European Green Deal: Modernization Fund. (2021, April 9). Ukrainska enerhetyka. https://ua-energy.org/uk/posts/yevropeiskyi-zelenyi-kurs-fond-modernizatsii [in Ukrainian].
  16. The need for investments in energy efficiency of Ukraine is $57 billion. (2016, April 11). Asotsiatsiia ener­hoaudytoriv Ukrainy. https://aea.org.ua/2016/04/potreba-investitsij-v-enerhoefektivnist-ukrayini-stanovit-57-mlrd-dol [in Ukrainian].
  17. International Energy Agency. (2024). Empowering Ukraine Through a Decentralised Electricity System. IEA. https://www.iea.org/reports/empowering-ukraine-through-a-decentralised-electricity-system/executive-summary
  18. Rizhok, A. (2025, August 25). Investments in Ukraine 2025. Banker. https://banker.ua/uk/projects/investicii-v-ukrainu-2025 [in Ukrainian].
  19. Bajic, A. (2025, April 8). Ahlers forges a path for logistics in war-torn Ukraine. Project Cargo Journal. https://www.projectcargojournal.com/transport-installation/2025/04/08/ahlers-forges-a-path-for-logistics-in-war-torn-ukraine
  20. Borodyna, O. (2025, July 10). Geopolitical risks: Ukraine’s reconstruction. ODI. https://odi.org/en/insights/ geopolitical-risks-ukraines-reconstruction

Full Text (.pdf)

Received: 29.10.2025
Accepted: 02.12.2025
Published: 29.12.2025